Interview: Fredy Gilgen
Fredy Gilgen: Hans R. Holdener, the shocks triggered by Credit Suisse were felt on financial markets around the world. As an experienced entrepreneur, what advice would you give to an investor in such a situation?
Hans R. Holdener: Wait and see and be patient in stormy times. When volatility becomes very high, one should just observe and stay calm.
But it's hard to imagine what would have happened if Credit Suisse had had to deposit its balance sheet.
The consequences would have been dramatic. In retrospect, 2008 would not even be worth mentioning in this case.
What do you mean exactly?
CS is a global giant. Many times bigger than Lehman.
What would happen?
Credit markets would have exploded, financial costs would have risen dramatically, even in real estate markets, if available at all. The subsequent crisis would have surpassed all previous crises. The mother of all crises.
Fortunately, the SNB and FINMA acted decisively yesterday.
Yes, but unfortunately much too late. They should have intervened at CS years ago.
Why is that?
The managers have obviously been fumbling for years. And without the reputation of this bank being rebuilt, it was and is in a doomed position. The signs have pointed to a storm for more than 15 years, ever since Oswald Grübel built up the greed culture.
What went wrong in your opinion?
The Chairman but also the CEO did not want any help. Not very forward-looking in my opinion. Without reputation, nothing works in banking anymore.
Is the bank really too big to go down?
Maybe. The question: is CS too big to fail, or just too big to save? I'm glad I'm not the one who decides on such things.
If you could decid?
Purely off the top of my head, four things come to mind. 1) Swiss SNB as new main shareholder, 2) Clean table, new composition of BoD and management, and 3) Rebranding from Credit Suisse to CS, 4) Back to Roots strategy.
Quo Vadis, where do we go from here?
A lot is still happening in the background. But soon everyone will see it: Inflation is soon dead. This has already been evident for months in most of the commodity prices.
Are there further signs of a decline in inflation?
There are now signs, especially in the USA, of an increase in unemployment and a decline in consumer spending. Both developments are clearly dampening prices. Who really wants to buy their Rolex today? No one. It's all psychological.
What will the central banks do?
Clear to me. For sure, the ECB and also the SNB will seriously consider whether they want to raise interest rates as long as certain banks are still wobbling. My guess: SNB is most likely not to raise interest rates much, but will give clear indications of the next steps.
What does that mean for Helvetica?
We had an outstanding fiscal year in 2022. Maybe we were also a bit lucky. I'm always a bit more cautious and conservative when the markets get nervous. Part of my job, to anticipate.
For the ongoing fiscal year?
We will not achieve the growth targets we have set, but we will remain well positioned as soon as the markets improve and the performance of our funds is strong. The demand for rental space is unbroken. With our hands-on approach, we always find hidden potential. Good for our investors.
The real estate market? Still attractive?
World-class. The Swiss real estate market is undervalued. There is a strong demand surplus, especially for residential real estate. But also for commercial space.
What exactly do you mean by excess demand?
The rising demand for apartments and rental space is driving up rents. This is due to high immigration and low supply. On top of that, rents have been declining for 15 years. A solid starting position.
What should an investor do if his fund shares suddenly lose value?
Stay calm. Broaden the investment horizon, and buy the right fund. Then you should consider investing your assets in our HSC Fund with ISIN CH0335507932. That way, you'll be on the winning side over the long term.
And inflation?
In my opinion, inflation is factually already gone. However, due to the delay in inflation statistics, this will only become visible in a few months.
What are the central banks doing?
Difficult to say. Wait and see. Maybe interest rates will go down again? Who knows.
Where do you think the dog is buried?
We have been in a global economic war for 30 years. But we have all become wimps. There is a lack of leadership and courage. That's a pity. Are we still a neutral country? I don't know.
A conclusion tip?
Sure. Give yourself a gift of the century. Sushi Chef Yusuke Sasaki impresses customers at the Japanese Omakase Restaurant at the Dolder Grand with just 8 seats and 18 courses. Soon he'll be gone. Here, as always in life, "timing" is key. Say hello to Yusuke for me.
Afraid of shares?
Then you should consider investing your capital in our Helvetica Swiss Commercial Fund with ISIN CH0335507932. You can purchase shares at all Swiss banks. Or you can contact us directly. We offer first-class service. Have I sparked your interest? Request free documentation or a personal meeting. Mr. Salman Baday is at your disposal at any time under 043 544 7080 or e-mail sb@Helvetica.com.
About the person
Hans R. Holdener (56)
Founder of Helvetica, an independent Real Estate Fund and Asset Management Firm regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Authority FINMA.
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